Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$176.89

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 99.4¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL+$312.75

No6 traders

Total Value$291.08

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL-$135.87

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
musicenthusiast	Yesavg 83.1¢	$398.67	$475.82	+$74.7	59% 428-296 (724)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 35¢	$105	$297.6	+$192.6	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 96.8¢	$167.28	$231.67	+$31.88	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 44.9¢	$832.61	$227.34	-$23.01	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 99.2¢	$170.95	$170.89	-$0.05	93% 490-36 (526)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 67.7¢	$87.76	$86.29	-$0.01	14% 461-2750 (3211)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$81.66	$57.86	-$23.79	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
JA JAMJAMJAM4<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$6.2	$19.84	+$13.64	67% 3663-1845 (5508)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$90.18	$3.52	-$86.66	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$10.7	$1.22	+$16.83	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$22.13	$0.64	-$6.34	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$13.4	$0.51	-$12.89	49% 8836-9340 (18176)

musicenthusiast

Yes

Invested

$398.67

Value

$475.82

PnL

+$74.7

Record

59%

428-296 (724)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$105

Value

$297.6

PnL

+$192.6

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$167.28

Value

$231.67

PnL

+$31.88

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$832.61

Value

$227.34

PnL

-$23.01

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$170.95

Value

$170.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

93%

490-36 (526)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.76

Value

$86.29

PnL

-$0.01

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$81.66

Value

$57.86

PnL

-$23.79

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

JAMJAMJAM4<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$13.64

Record

67%

3663-1845 (5508)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$90.18

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$86.66

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$16.83

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$22.13

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$6.34

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$12.89

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.