Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 15%-20%?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 3.5¢ · $939 held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$939.49

Combined PnL

$369.94

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 3.5¢

-95% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$754.63

Total Shares782

Combined PnL+$492.9

No6 traders

Total Value$184.86

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$122.96

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 54.5¢	$123.2	$218.38	+$95.18	32% 8-17 (25)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 20.6¢	$47.61	$215.12	+$167.5	34% 19136-36776 (55912)
2B9SCTR	Noavg 76.9¢	$99.08	$172.59	+$80.57	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
RayGuy	Yesavg 25.5¢	$38	$170.73	+$95.75	85% 23-4 (27)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$9.15	$98.48	+$89.33	47% 4058-4558 (8616)
RA RadioCCOD<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$6.43	$48.74	+$42.23	33% 81-167 (248)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Noavg 67¢	$165.09	$8.49	-$156.6	55% 17-14 (31)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$0.28	$3.19	+$2.9	73% 13760-5199 (18959)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$53.74	$2	-$40.42	17% 1307-6523 (7830)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	No	$0.75	$0.75	+$0	24% 450-1390 (1840)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$1.04	$0.69	-$0.35	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$6.51	$0.35	-$6.17	58% 16798-12127 (28925)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$123.2

Value

$218.38

PnL

+$95.18

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$47.61

Value

$215.12

PnL

+$167.5

Record

34%

19136-36776 (55912)

2B9SCTR

Invested

$99.08

Value

$172.59

PnL

+$80.57

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

RayGuy

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$170.73

PnL

+$95.75

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.15

Value

$98.48

PnL

+$89.33

Record

47%

4058-4558 (8616)

RadioCCOD<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$48.74

PnL

+$42.23

Record

33%

81-167 (248)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Invested

$165.09

Value

$8.49

PnL

-$156.6

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$2.9

Record

73%

13760-5199 (18959)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$53.74

Value

PnL

-$40.42

Record

17%

1307-6523 (7830)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

450-1390 (1840)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$6.17

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.6%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2064.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

2164.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.