Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 3%-6%?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$161.48
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$125.18 | 50% 1080-1085 (2165) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $821.48 | $636.3 | -$49.89 | 20% 322-1323 (1645) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.9¢ | $462.04 | $475.62 | +$8.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $198.19 | $160.68 | -$58.01 | |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $166.18 | $171.5 | +$5.32 | 42% 66-91 (157) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $139.15 | $121.26 | -$17.89 | 60% 3357-2265 (5622) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $41.63 | $90.49 | +$48.87 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
Invested
$1,738.14
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$125.18
Record
50%
1080-1085 (2165)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$821.48
Value
$636.3
PnL
-$49.89
Record
20%
322-1323 (1645)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.18
Value
$171.5
PnL
+$5.32
Record
42%
66-91 (157)
Invested
$139.15
Value
$121.26
PnL
-$17.89
Record
60%
3357-2265 (5622)
Invested
$41.63
Value
$90.49
PnL
+$48.87
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.