Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 18% or more?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $122 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$122.1

Combined PnL

-$78.91

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$120.04

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$1.55

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.07

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL-$77.36

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.7¢	$165.3	$110.05	-$1.59	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.99	+$0.05	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$42.14	$0.76	-$41.38	52% 1714-1569 (3283)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$12.58	$0.42	-$12.16	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$7.84	$0.29	-$7.41	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$4.72	$0.24	-$3.89	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.2	$0.2	-$11.05	47% 8350-9514 (17864)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.11	$0.14	-$0.97	67% 4218-2061 (6279)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$0.52	$0.01	-$0.51	48% 22-24 (46)

Lucerys

Invested

$165.3

Value

$110.05

PnL

-$1.59

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.14

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$41.38

Record

52%

1714-1569 (3283)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$12.16

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.84

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$7.41

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.72

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$3.89

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$11.05

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.97

Record

67%

4218-2061 (6279)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

22-24 (46)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.