Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-26 House election by 0%-5%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $165 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$165.25
-$1.78
97¢ → 98.6¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 97¢ | $148.29 | $148.47 | +$0.18 | — 4-0 (4) |
 Crypto-Joe<$100 | Yesavg 97.1¢ | $9.81 | $9.95 | +$0.15 | — 2-14 (16) |
DG DG-NO<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.86 | -$0.09 | 36% 389-679 (1068) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $3.93 | $1.9 | -$2.03 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.07 | +$0.02 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
mrworldwideInvested
$148.29
Value
$148.47
PnL
+$0.18
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Crypto-Joe<$100Invested
$9.81
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.86
PnL
-$0.09
Record
36%
389-679 (1068)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$2.03
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.