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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-16 House election by 9%-12%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
📊
Open
Consensus Traders
0
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$58.84
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes7%
No93%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $81.3 | $58.84 | +$60.27 | 35% 17355-32033 (49388) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.3¢ | $18.59 | $38.07 | +$23.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $19.62 | $20.77 | +$36.92 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance8.4%
7.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$1083.51
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
1183.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x7de6283e...0261a2
Slug
will-the-republican-party-candidate-win-the-2026-fl-16-house-election-by-9-12