Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-06 House election by 15%-20%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $393 held · ends Nov 4

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$393

Combined PnL

$46.58

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 76¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$343.49

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$30.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$49.29

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$15.7

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 76.7¢	$369.38	$323.41	+$33.72	35% 14791-26919 (41710)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$31.9	$41.78	+$9.88	18% 3781-17067 (20848)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$42.93	$14.46	-$3.18	28% 280-709 (989)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$1.69	$7.51	+$5.82	60% 3236-2169 (5405)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$5.27	$5.62	+$0.35	62% 2180-1323 (3503)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$369.38

Value

$323.41

PnL

+$33.72

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.9

Value

$41.78

PnL

+$9.88

Record

18%

3781-17067 (20848)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$42.93

Value

$14.46

PnL

-$3.18

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$5.82

Record

60%

3236-2169 (5405)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.35

Record

62%

2180-1323 (3503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.