Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-05 House election by 15%-20%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 28¢ · $508 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$508.36
$66.67
21.4¢ → 28¢
+31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $147.95 | $179 | +$31.05 | — 1-0 (1) |
AM AmericaFirst1 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $114.27 | $132.86 | +$25.05 | 62% 2178-1322 (3500) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $105.82 | $116.4 | +$10.58 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $96.23 | $80.1 | -$1.8 | 32% 273-569 (842) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $60.07 | $57.67 | -$3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $21.23 | $22.43 | +$1.2 |
fkpaCTRInvested
$147.95
Value
$179
PnL
+$31.05
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$114.27
Value
$132.86
PnL
+$25.05
Record
62%
2178-1322 (3500)
Invested
$105.82
Value
$116.4
PnL
+$10.58
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$96.23
Value
$80.1
PnL
-$1.8
Record
32%
273-569 (842)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.