Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-04 House election by 12%-15%?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 25¢ · $226 held · ends Nov 4

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$225.6

Combined PnL

$64.19

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$161.34

Total Shares645

Combined PnL+$70.42

No1 trader

Total Value$64.26

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$6.23

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$76.53	$122.64	+$46.11	35% 17396-32076 (49472)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89¢	$9.79	$64.26	-$6.23	20% 2381-9333 (11714)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$8.15	$28.75	+$20.6	59% 3616-2509 (6125)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$6.25	$9.96	+$3.71	72% 12569-4976 (17545)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$76.53

Value

$122.64

PnL

+$46.11

Record

35%

17396-32076 (49472)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$9.79

Value

$64.26

PnL

-$6.23

Record

20%

2381-9333 (11714)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.15

Value

$28.75

PnL

+$20.6

Record

59%

3616-2509 (6125)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.25

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$3.71

Record

72%

12569-4976 (17545)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.8%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$273.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

373.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.