Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 10%-15%?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 78¢ · $497 held · ended Nov 4

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$497.25

Combined PnL

$44.05

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$110.44

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$38.69

No4 traders

Total Value$38.74

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$5.36

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$411.95	$348.07	+$101.07	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.3¢	$72.45	$191.27	+$164.45
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$211.38	$156.8	-$63.38
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$50.94	$70.6	+$21.08	56% 453-353 (806)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$5.38	$25.35	+$20.01	59% 3713-2582 (6295)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 15.3¢	$4.59	$12.32	+$7.73	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
Car<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$3.57	$11.79	+$8.22	67% 4218-2061 (6279)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$10.98	$10	-$0.37	14% 461-2758 (3219)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$3.02	$8.21	+$5.19	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15.4	$8.21	-$7.19	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$35.05	$2.7	-$10.62	20% 2590-10277 (12867)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$411.95

Value

$348.07

PnL

+$101.07

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Both legs:

Yes$72.4522.3¢+$164.45

No$211.3855.3¢-$63.38

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.94

Value

$70.6

PnL

+$21.08

Record

56%

453-353 (806)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.38

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$20.01

Record

59%

3713-2582 (6295)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$12.32

PnL

+$7.73

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

Car<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$8.22

Record

67%

4218-2061 (6279)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.37

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$3.02

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$5.19

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$7.19

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.05

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$10.62

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.5%

77.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.