Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 30%-35%?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 54¢ · $850 held · ended Nov 4

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$849.77

Combined PnL

$500.63

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 54¢

-35% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$746.44

Total Shares1,623

Combined PnL+$547.33

No2 traders

Total Value$103.32

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$46.69

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$51.36	$341.63	+$280.79	47% 1359-1504 (2863)
RayGuyCTR	Yes	$126.96	$126.96	+$100.43	82% 23-5 (28)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$52.92	$118.49	+$65.56	34% 19470-37042 (56512)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$41.06	$104.88	+$63.82	43% 15-20 (35)
Haradwaith	Noavg 82.3¢	$98.8	$76.33	-$32.44	40% 6604-9943 (16547)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$4.2	$40.17	+$26.44	19% 2926-12416 (15342)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 84¢	$41.24	$27	-$14.25	45% 3017-3712 (6729)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$3.86	$14.32	+$10.28	36% 102-180 (282)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$51.36

Value

$341.63

PnL

+$280.79

Record

47%

1359-1504 (2863)

RayGuyCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.96

Value

$126.96

PnL

+$100.43

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$52.92

Value

$118.49

PnL

+$65.56

Record

34%

19470-37042 (56512)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$41.06

Value

$104.88

PnL

+$63.82

Record

43%

15-20 (35)

Haradwaith

Invested

$98.8

Value

$76.33

PnL

-$32.44

Record

40%

6604-9943 (16547)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$40.17

PnL

+$26.44

Record

19%

2926-12416 (15342)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$41.24

Value

$27

PnL

-$14.25

Record

45%

3017-3712 (6729)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$10.28

Record

36%

102-180 (282)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.0%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$78.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

178.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.