Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 30%-35%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 17¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$248.76
$108.33
17.4¢ → 16.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $39.94 | $154.16 | +$114.22 | — 1-0 (1) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $114.96 | $72.95 | -$7.24 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $16.7 | +$1.5 | 67% 4135-2000 (6135) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $30 | $4.95 | -$0.15 | — 2-1 (3) |
fkpaCTRInvested
$39.94
Value
$154.16
PnL
+$114.22
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$114.96
Value
$72.95
PnL
-$7.24
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Car<$100Invested
$15.2
Value
$16.7
PnL
+$1.5
Record
67%
4135-2000 (6135)
Invested
$30
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.