Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on November 1?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
3 arb excluded
$28.8K
-$24.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 85.3¢ | $30.6K | $26.0K | $-4.7K | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 85.3¢ | $20.4K | $15.5K | $-4.9K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.4¢ | $10.2K | $10.5K | +$269.39 | |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $8.2K | $2.5K | +$3.8K | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 14.7¢ | $587.12 | $1.4K | +$1.6K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$2.2K | |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Yesavg 73.8¢ | $594.61 | $230.32 | +$143.81 | 59% 2237-1570 (3807) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 10.1¢ | $35.11 | $123.02 | +$91.33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 73.8¢ | $122.45 | $107.29 | +$52.47 | |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $93.12 | $68.5 | -$24.62 | 52% 5041-4710 (9751) |
Invested
$30,631.62
Value
$26.0K
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Both legs:
Invested
$8,183.3
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$3.8K
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Both legs:
Invested
$594.61
Value
$230.32
PnL
+$143.81
Record
59%
2237-1570 (3807)
Both legs:
Invested
$93.12
Value
$68.5
PnL
-$24.62
Record
52%
5041-4710 (9751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.