Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on October 30?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 75¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$8.8K
$2.6K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $4.9K | $7.5K | +$2.6K | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $4.0K | $1.2K | $-1.5K | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.1¢ | $525.44 | $873.85 | +$461.42 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.7¢ | $753.98 | $291.28 | $-2.0K | |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 30.3¢ | $286.17 | $86.29 | -$57.69 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
Invested
$4,915.67
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$4,035.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Both legs:
Invested
$286.17
Value
$86.29
PnL
-$57.69
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.