Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on November 10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 93¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$3.1K
$638.93
66.9¢ → 92.8¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $2.3K | $3.0K | +$708.86 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $48.03 | $25.81 | -$22.22 | 41% 31-45 (76) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 83.7¢ | $20.7 | $18.96 | +$0.82 | 66% 4056-2071 (6127) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $9.42 | $12.08 | +$2.66 | 43% 2552-3349 (5901) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100 | Noavg 43.2¢ | $67.04 | $10.85 | -$56.18 | — 3-2 (5) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 30.5¢ | $3.05 | $8.05 | +$5 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
Invested
$2,325.57
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$708.86
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$48.03
Value
$25.81
PnL
-$22.22
Record
41%
31-45 (76)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$18.96
PnL
+$0.82
Record
66%
4056-2071 (6127)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$12.08
PnL
+$2.66
Record
43%
2552-3349 (5901)
Invested
$67.04
Value
$10.85
PnL
-$56.18
Record
—
3-2 (5)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$8.05
PnL
+$5
Record
41%
3010-4415 (7425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.