Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $636 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$636.31
-$38.53
92.5¢ → 91.3¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $340.59 | $313.35 | -$27.25 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
 balthazar | Noavg 92.4¢ | $273.55 | $262.28 | -$11.27 | 50% 4568-4480 (9048) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $46.88 | $45.69 | -$1.19 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $8.08 | $8.85 | +$0.77 | 41% 3063-4447 (7510) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $2.13 | $3.24 | +$1.11 | 40% 38-58 (96) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $3.6 | $2.9 | -$0.7 | — 8-9 (17) |
Invested
$340.59
Value
$313.35
PnL
-$27.25
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
balthazarInvested
$273.55
Value
$262.28
PnL
-$11.27
Record
50%
4568-4480 (9048)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$46.88
Value
$45.69
PnL
-$1.19
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
Invested
$8.08
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.77
Record
41%
3063-4447 (7510)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$1.11
Record
40%
38-58 (96)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.7
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.