Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on November 15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 69.1¢

-29% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares7,946

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$173.12

Total Shares639

Combined PnL+$276.44

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97¢	$8.4K	$5.6K	$-2.1K	69% 174-79 (253)
TO Tokor	Noavg 90.3¢	$356.67	$376.74	+$20.07	53% 125-112 (237)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$97.1	$95.4	-$1.7	31% 146-327 (473)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.81	$62.35	+$57.54	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$41.42	$59.75	+$171.23	73% 119-45 (164)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$4.39	$50.51	+$46.12	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
balthazar	Noavg 91.6¢	$125.18	$15.58	-$0.46	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.24	$0.52	+$1.56	50% 182-185 (367)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,447.85

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

Tokor

Invested

$356.67

Value

$376.74

PnL

+$20.07

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$97.1

Value

$95.4

PnL

-$1.7

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.81

Value

$62.35

PnL

+$57.54

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.42

Value

$59.75

PnL

+$171.23

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.39

Value

$50.51

PnL

+$46.12

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

balthazar

Invested

$125.18

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$0.46

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$1.56

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.6%

69.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.