Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 75.4¢

-22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares12,874

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$642.46

Total Shares2,781

Combined PnL+$434.38

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 96.5¢	$11.7K	$9.1K	$-2.5K	69% 174-79 (253)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$199.26	$556.51	+$357.25	58% 34-25 (59)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 96.7¢	$625.55	$494.83	-$118.76	73% 119-45 (164)
E4 e46m3ARB<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$194.04	$218.4	+$85.34	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.5¢	$18.37	$123.13	+$133.62
└ No leg	Noavg 93.1¢	$115.76	$95.27	-$48.27
balthazar	Noavg 76.4¢	$428.3	$103.67	-$35.05	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$8.82	$85.95	+$77.14	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$39.07	$30.98	-$8.08	58% 699-503 (1202)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98¢	$39.2	$30.64	-$8.56	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$33.31	$26.41	-$6.9	48% 757-814 (1571)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$25.08	$24.51	-$0.57	27% 667-1774 (2441)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$28.98	$22.98	-$6	34% 263-518 (781)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$11,701.68

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR

Yes

Invested

$199.26

Value

$556.51

PnL

+$357.25

Record

58%

34-25 (59)

0xDB5

Invested

$625.55

Value

$494.83

PnL

-$118.76

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

e46m3ARB<$100

Invested

$194.04

Value

$218.4

PnL

+$85.34

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

Both legs:

Yes$18.373.5¢+$133.62

No$115.7693.1¢-$48.27

balthazar

Invested

$428.3

Value

$103.67

PnL

-$35.05

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.82

Value

$85.95

PnL

+$77.14

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$39.07

Value

$30.98

PnL

-$8.08

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

123987456<$100

Invested

$39.2

Value

$30.64

PnL

-$8.56

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$33.31

Value

$26.41

PnL

-$6.9

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$25.08

Value

$24.51

PnL

-$0.57

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.98

Value

$22.98

PnL

-$6

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

75.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.