Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on November 15?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.4

Combined PnL

-$68.38

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares802

Combined PnL-$68.38

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.5	$0.18	-$32.32	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.35	$0.06	-$11.28	28% 3256-8289 (11545)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.17	$0.04	-$8.13	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.18	$0.04	-$7.14	50% 875-892 (1767)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.5	$0.03	-$0.47	49% 212-223 (435)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.16	$0.01	-$2.15	18% 855-3975 (4830)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2	$0.01	-$1.99	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.74	$0.01	-$1.73	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$0.01	-$1.72	41% 2653-3786 (6439)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.45	$0.01	-$1.45	24% 752-2351 (3103)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.5

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$32.32

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.35

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.28

Record

28%

3256-8289 (11545)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.17

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.13

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.14

Record

50%

875-892 (1767)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.47

Record

49%

212-223 (435)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.15

Record

18%

855-3975 (4830)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.99

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.73

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.72

Record

41%

2653-3786 (6439)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.45

Record

24%

752-2351 (3103)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.