Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$5.31

Combined PnL

-$57.34

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$5

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares633

Combined PnL-$57.35

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	67% 20-10 (30)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.5	$0.18	-$32.32	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.17	$0.04	-$8.13	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.18	$0.04	-$7.14	49% 849-871 (1720)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.07	$0.02	-$4.05	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2	$0.01	-$1.99	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$0.01	-$1.72	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.45	$0.01	-$1.45	25% 733-2166 (2899)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.55	$0	-$0.55	48% 209-222 (431)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.5

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$32.32

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.17

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.13

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.14

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.05

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.99

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.72

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.45

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

209-222 (431)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.