Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 15?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 100¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$170.23

Combined PnL

-$54.79

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$169.92

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$3.32

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares638

Combined PnL-$58.11

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98¢	$166.6	$169.92	+$3.32	68% 208-97 (305)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.5	$0.18	-$32.32	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.17	$0.04	-$8.13	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.18	$0.04	-$7.14	49% 849-871 (1720)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.07	$0.02	-$4.05	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2	$0.01	-$1.99	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$0.01	-$1.72	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.45	$0.01	-$1.45	25% 733-2166 (2899)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0	-$0.46	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0	-$0.85	48% 209-222 (431)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$166.6

Value

$169.92

PnL

+$3.32

Record

68%

208-97 (305)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.5

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$32.32

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.17

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.13

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.14

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.05

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.99

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.72

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.45

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

PnL

-$0.46

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

PnL

-$0.85

Record

48%

209-222 (431)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.