Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 14?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.81

Combined PnL

-$147.79

Smart Money Entry

9.2¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.81

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL-$147.79

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$71.86	$0.4	-$71.47	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.72	$0.13	-$23.59	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.27	$0.13	-$23.14	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.95	$0.05	-$9.9	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.77	$0.04	-$7.72	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.16	$0.02	-$4.14	26% 692-1921 (2613)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.9	$0.02	-$2.89	18% 853-3922 (4775)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.24	$0.01	-$2.24	69% 182-81 (263)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.86

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$71.47

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.72

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.59

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.27

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.14

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.95

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.9

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.77

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.72

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.14

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.89

Record

18%

853-3922 (4775)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.24

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.24

Record

69%

182-81 (263)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.