Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.6K
$69.04
83.6¢ → 92.7¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $4.0K | $4.3K | +$310.05 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $948.14 | $606.52 | -$341.61 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
RE resuilddeCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $392.57 | $490.95 | +$98.38 | — 2-5 (7) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $178.4 | $181 | +$2.6 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $18.48 | $18.1 | -$0.38 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
Invested
$3,981.09
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$310.05
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$948.14
Value
$606.52
PnL
-$341.61
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$392.57
Value
$490.95
PnL
+$98.38
Record
—
2-5 (7)
Invested
$178.4
Value
$181
PnL
+$2.6
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.48
Value
$18.1
PnL
-$0.38
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.