Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on October 31?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$92.81

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$323.35

Total Shares1,711

Combined PnL+$93.37

No1 trader

Total Value$254.65

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$0.56

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$732.48	$929.5	+$248.22	60% 1043-709 (1752)
└ No leg	Noavg 87.2¢	$697.6	$648.8	-$48.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.9¢	$27.48	$280.7	+$297.02
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$227.92	$313.14	+$85.22	65% 2384-1276 (3660)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 81.3¢	$255.22	$254.65	-$0.56	59% 2181-1535 (3716)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.05	$10.21	+$8.15	53% 3699-3216 (6915)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100

Invested

$732.48

Value

$929.5

PnL

+$248.22

Record

60%

1043-709 (1752)

Both legs:

No$697.687.2¢-$48.8

Yes$27.481.9¢+$297.02

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Yes

Invested

$227.92

Value

$313.14

PnL

+$85.22

Record

65%

2384-1276 (3660)

0xDB5

Invested

$255.22

Value

$254.65

PnL

-$0.56

Record

59%

2181-1535 (3716)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$8.15

Record

53%

3699-3216 (6915)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.1%

81.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.