Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$160.73

Combined PnL

-$124.09

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$159.93

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$21.44

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares1,605

Combined PnL-$145.53

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 85.5¢	$138.49	$159.93	+$21.44	69% 182-81 (263)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$71.86	$0.4	-$71.47	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.72	$0.13	-$23.59	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.27	$0.13	-$23.14	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.95	$0.05	-$9.9	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.29	$0.04	-$7.7	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.16	$0.02	-$4.14	26% 692-1921 (2613)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.9	$0.02	-$2.89	18% 853-3922 (4775)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	39% 3645-5777 (9422)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$138.49

Value

$159.93

PnL

+$21.44

Record

69%

182-81 (263)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.86

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$71.47

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.72

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.59

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.27

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.14

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.95

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.9

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.29

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.7

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.14

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.89

Record

18%

853-3922 (4775)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.