Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$46.57

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,496

Combined PnL+$84.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.93

Total Shares452

Combined PnL-$38.11

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98¢	$4.9K	$4.1K	+$64.81	69% 174-79 (253)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 90.7¢	$199.75	$219.41	+$19.66	73% 119-45 (164)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99¢	$45.52	$45.82	+$0.3	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$40.29	$40.31	+$0.02	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$34.34	$34.36	+$0.02	50% 697-689 (1386)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$32.61	$32.49	-$0.11	27% 667-1774 (2441)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.9	+$0.02	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.92	-$0.02	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.41	$2.6	-$33.81	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.64	$0.33	-$4.3	46% 1071-1282 (2353)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$4,911.8

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$64.81

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

0xDB5

Invested

$199.75

Value

$219.41

PnL

+$19.66

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

123987456<$100

Invested

$45.52

Value

$45.82

PnL

+$0.3

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$40.29

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$34.34

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$32.61

Value

$32.49

PnL

-$0.11

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.92

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.41

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$33.81

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$4.3

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.