Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on November 14?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$308.05

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 99.1¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,582

Combined PnL+$440.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.71

Total Shares691

Combined PnL-$132.69

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 90.7¢	$4.3K	$2.0K	+$614.59	69% 174-79 (253)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 83.3¢	$662.66	$154.3	-$190.19	73% 119-45 (164)
12 123987456	Noavg 91.4¢	$100.55	$108.9	+$8.35	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$64.02	$69.18	+$5.16	58% 34-25 (59)
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 93¢	$49.29	$52.47	+$3.18	50% 182-185 (367)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$40.05	$39.24	-$0.81	63% 714-428 (1142)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$37.19	$38.61	+$1.42	— 10-4 (14)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.1	-$0.6	29% 232-564 (796)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99¢	$13.86	$13.58	-$0.28	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$55.61	$11.42	-$24.19	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$117.8	$9.3	-$108.5	53% 125-112 (237)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.01	$4.93	-$0.09	49% 731-768 (1499)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$4,266.75

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$614.59

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

0xDB5

Invested

$662.66

Value

$154.3

PnL

-$190.19

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

123987456

Invested

$100.55

Value

$108.9

PnL

+$8.35

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100

Invested

$64.02

Value

$69.18

PnL

+$5.16

Record

58%

34-25 (59)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$49.29

Value

$52.47

PnL

+$3.18

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$40.05

Value

$39.24

PnL

-$0.81

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$37.19

Value

$38.61

PnL

+$1.42

Record

—

10-4 (14)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.58

PnL

-$0.28

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.61

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$24.19

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.8

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$108.5

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.