Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $636 held · ends Nov 13

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$635.98

Combined PnL

-$30.2

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 91¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$631.57

Total Shares711

Combined PnL-$39.66

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.41

Total Shares52

Combined PnL+$9.45

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO Tokor	Noavg 85.7¢	$544.53	$548.92	+$4.38	51% 96-91 (187)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 86.4¢	$344.74	$72.26	-$42.64	67% 109-54 (163)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$6.9	$6.07	-$0.83	43% 2576-3406 (5982)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.32	-$0.58	— 4-2 (6)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$1.91	$1.97	+$0.06	73% 76-28 (104)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$1.68	-$0.14	46% 4852-5648 (10500)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.42	-$0.03	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.59	$0.34	+$9.57	47% 107-120 (227)

Tokor

Invested

$544.53

Value

$548.92

PnL

+$4.38

Record

51%

96-91 (187)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$344.74

Value

$72.26

PnL

-$42.64

Record

67%

109-54 (163)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.07

PnL

-$0.83

Record

43%

2576-3406 (5982)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.58

Record

—

4-2 (6)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

73%

76-28 (104)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

4852-5648 (10500)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$9.57

Record

47%

107-120 (227)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.5%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.