Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on November 12?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$4.94

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,459

Combined PnL-$8.09

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.27

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$3.15

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$12.96	67% 109-54 (163)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 97.6¢	$604.05	$150.5	+$4.79	73% 76-28 (104)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.98	$26.84	-$0.14	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.33	$13.35	+$0.03	48% 492-536 (1028)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$10.63	$10.71	+$0.07	47% 546-625 (1171)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.11	$1.22	+$0.11	42% 840-1166 (2006)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.48	-$2.25	47% 4825-5517 (10342)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.94	$0.19	-$4.73	43% 2575-3401 (5976)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.16	+$0.12	45% 522-645 (1167)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.16	+$0.12	62% 472-292 (764)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$5.5	$0.16	+$9.8	46% 104-120 (224)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.12	+$0.09	62% 474-292 (766)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$4,178.67

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$12.96

Record

67%

109-54 (163)

0xDB5

Invested

$604.05

Value

$150.5

PnL

+$4.79

Record

73%

76-28 (104)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$26.98

Value

$26.84

PnL

-$0.14

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.33

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

492-536 (1028)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

546-625 (1171)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

840-1166 (2006)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$2.25

Record

47%

4825-5517 (10342)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.94

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$4.73

Record

43%

2575-3401 (5976)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

45%

522-645 (1167)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

62%

472-292 (764)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$9.8

Record

46%

104-120 (224)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.09

Record

62%

474-292 (766)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.