Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 92¢ · $407 held · ends Dec 31

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$407

Combined PnL

$9.73

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 91.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$398.03

Total Shares424

Combined PnL+$13.07

No4 traders

Total Value$8.97

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$3.34

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 86.5¢	$276.49	$289.86	+$13.37	41% 3059-4446 (7505)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$87.87	$86.57	-$1.3	4% 1-24 (25)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$20.6	$21.6	+$1	53% 5440-4884 (10324)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$7.56	$5.36	-$2.2	15% 3-17 (20)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$1.6	$1.7	+$0.1	29% 2560-6176 (8736)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$3	$1.7	-$1.3	— 1-18 (19)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.15	$0.22	+$0.06	86% 36-6 (42)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$276.49

Value

$289.86

PnL

+$13.37

Record

41%

3059-4446 (7505)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.87

Value

$86.57

PnL

-$1.3

Record

1-24 (25)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.6

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

5440-4884 (10324)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$2.2

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

29%

2560-6176 (8736)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$1.3

Record

—

1-18 (19)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.06

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.