Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 31¢ · $309 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$308.64
$8.76
29.1¢ → 30.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $115.25 | $123.2 | +$7.95 | — 4-15 (19) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $88.75 | $88.75 | -$0 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $34.14 | $34.79 | +$0.65 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $6.22 | $6.22 | +$0 | 24% 82-266 (348) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.52 | $5.68 | +$0.16 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$115.25
Value
$123.2
PnL
+$7.95
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$88.75
Value
$88.75
PnL
-$0
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$50
Value
$50
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$34.14
Value
$34.79
PnL
+$0.65
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$6.22
Value
$6.22
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
82-266 (348)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$0.16
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.