Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Ottawa Senators record 100+ points?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 48¢ · $290 held · ends Apr 30, 2027

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Fri, Apr 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$290.35

Combined PnL

$39.99

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 48¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$241.75

Total Shares514

Combined PnL+$42.66

No3 traders

Total Value$48.6

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$2.67

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 50.5¢	$135.3	$136.3	+$1	48% 404-446 (850)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$61.31	$102.92	+$41.61	52% 6155-5779 (11934)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$49.01	$23.61	-$0.4	34% 19370-36924 (56294)
AU auros2<$100	No	$15.5	$15.5	+$0.01	— 6-1 (7)
ND ndb1<$100	Noavg 62¢	$11.76	$9.49	-$2.28	64% 1053-596 (1649)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$2.48	$2.53	+$0.05	40% 6562-9840 (16402)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.3

Value

$136.3

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

404-446 (850)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$61.31

Value

$102.92

PnL

+$41.61

Record

52%

6155-5779 (11934)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$49.01

Value

$23.61

PnL

-$0.4

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

auros2<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

6-1 (7)

ndb1<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$2.28

Record

64%

1053-596 (1649)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

6562-9840 (16402)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.