Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.50 and $1.75 on November 30, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 36¢ · $152 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$151.64
$63.65
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $49.44 | $52.79 | +$3.35 | 41% 3005-4412 (7417) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $28.9 | $32.25 | +$3.35 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36¢ | $20.54 | $20.54 | +$0 | |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 11.4¢ | $14.25 | $45 | +$30.75 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.3¢ | $16.75 | $42.22 | +$25.47 | 50% 4491-4437 (8928) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $4.2 | $11.64 | +$7.43 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
Invested
$49.44
Value
$52.79
PnL
+$3.35
Record
41%
3005-4412 (7417)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.25
Value
$45
PnL
+$30.75
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$42.22
PnL
+$25.47
Record
50%
4491-4437 (8928)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$11.64
PnL
+$7.43
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.