Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.50 and $1.75 on December 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 68¢ · $185 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$185.16
$35.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
127h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $92.54 | $92 | -$0.54 | — 0-12 (12) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48¢ | $44.16 | $63.02 | +$18.86 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $48.38 | $28.98 | -$19.4 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 35.6¢ | $35.38 | $57.52 | +$22.14 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 34.4¢ | $11.05 | $22.01 | +$10.96 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $9.4 | $8.49 | -$0.91 | — 12-6 (18) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $1.5 | $5.14 | +$3.64 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
Invested
$92.54
Value
$92
PnL
-$0.54
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.38
Value
$57.52
PnL
+$22.14
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.05
Value
$22.01
PnL
+$10.96
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$8.49
PnL
-$0.91
Record
—
12-6 (18)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$5.14
PnL
+$3.64
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.