Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on November 30, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $525 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$525.33
$5.21
84.5¢ → 74.5¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Late
132h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $70.34 | $161.01 | +$90.67 | — 0-5 (5) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 89¢ | $137.59 | $105.13 | -$32.47 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $95.24 | $92.59 | -$2.65 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 88.4¢ | $110.55 | $85 | -$25.55 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 balthazar | Noavg 88.7¢ | $106.4 | $81.6 | -$24.8 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$70.34
Value
$161.01
PnL
+$90.67
Record
—
0-5 (5)
LucerysInvested
$137.59
Value
$105.13
PnL
-$32.47
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$95.24
Value
$92.59
PnL
-$2.65
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
Invested
$110.55
Value
$85
PnL
-$25.55
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
balthazarInvested
$106.4
Value
$81.6
PnL
-$24.8
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.