Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on November 30, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.0K
$31.08
62.2¢ → 61¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $450.11 | $527.29 | +$77.17 | 49% 552-581 (1133) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 60¢ | $237.49 | $229.45 | -$8.04 | 48% 1350-1485 (2835) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 66.4¢ | $166.1 | $138.75 | -$27.35 | 34% 19152-36682 (55834) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 59.5¢ | $109.37 | $106.59 | -$2.78 | 53% 8525-7603 (16128) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $38.19 | $32.91 | -$6.53 | 16% 372-1943 (2315) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $13 | $11.6 | -$1.4 | 53% 23272-20444 (43716) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$450.11
Value
$527.29
PnL
+$77.17
Record
49%
552-581 (1133)
Invested
$237.49
Value
$229.45
PnL
-$8.04
Record
48%
1350-1485 (2835)
Invested
$166.1
Value
$138.75
PnL
-$27.35
Record
34%
19152-36682 (55834)
Invested
$109.37
Value
$106.59
PnL
-$2.78
Record
53%
8525-7603 (16128)
Invested
$38.19
Value
$32.91
PnL
-$6.53
Record
16%
372-1943 (2315)
Invested
$13
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$1.4
Record
53%
23272-20444 (43716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.