Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on December 31, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 77¢ · $141 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$141.48
-$2.9
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $97.48 | $104.41 | +$6.94 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.6¢ | $79.17 | $81.67 | +$2.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $18.31 | $22.74 | +$4.43 | |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $25.67 | $24.75 | -$0.92 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $7.83 | $6.53 | -$1.3 | — 12-6 (18) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.45 | $5.78 | -$0.67 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
Invested
$97.48
Value
$104.41
PnL
+$6.94
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Both legs:
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.67
Value
$24.75
PnL
-$0.92
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$6.53
PnL
-$1.3
Record
—
12-6 (18)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$5.78
PnL
-$0.67
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.