Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on November 30, 2026?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $195 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$195.1

Combined PnL

-$60.75

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$187.59

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$0.37

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.51

Total Shares337

Combined PnL-$60.38

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.88	$124.62	-$0.25	38% 328-524 (852)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.91	-$0.06	29% 1110-2781 (3891)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 92¢	$25.1	$23.08	-$0.08	16% 31-164 (195)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$9.95	$9.97	+$0.02	30% 1186-2734 (3920)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$42.61	$5.77	-$11.04	38% 3837-6288 (10125)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$9.07	$0.54	-$8.53	26% 55-157 (212)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$29.59	$0.43	-$17.95	40% 2681-3987 (6668)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.34	$0.4	+$0.06	40% 279-413 (692)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$43.25	$0.36	-$22.92	42% 5242-7255 (12497)

quietparcel

Invested

$124.88

Value

$124.62

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

328-524 (852)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

1110-2781 (3891)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$25.1

Value

$23.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

16%

31-164 (195)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

1186-2734 (3920)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.61

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$11.04

Record

38%

3837-6288 (10125)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.07

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$8.53

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.59

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$17.95

Record

40%

2681-3987 (6668)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40%

279-413 (692)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.25

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$22.92

Record

42%

5242-7255 (12497)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.