Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.50 on October 31, 2026?

Resolved No. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$727.83

Combined PnL

-$233.62

Smart Money Signal

27 of 33 top traders (82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No27 traders

Total Value$727.83

Total Shares728

Combined PnL-$179.73

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares995

Combined PnL-$53.89

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$89.02	$89.84	-$14.19	55% 25961-21246 (47207)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Noavg 95.4¢	$207.49	$85	-$40.85	51% 528-511 (1039)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$59.75	$60.29	-$9.53	30% 320-759 (1079)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$55.48	$55.98	-$8.85	39% 448-709 (1157)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$48.11	$55	+$0.07	61% 13866-8714 (22580)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$44.38	$44.6	-$7.22	44% 3596-4661 (8257)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99¢	$39.58	$40	-$3.42	42% 5989-8172 (14161)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$38.64	$38.83	-$6.29	30% 367-838 (1205)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$57.57	$36	-$2.37	31% 1408-3193 (4601)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$31.94	$32.1	-$5.2	28% 212-555 (767)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$31.94	$32.1	-$5.2	30% 350-813 (1163)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$29.06	$29.32	-$4.63	28% 231-605 (836)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$27.11	$27.25	-$4.41	54% 6081-5239 (11320)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.78	$20	+$0.22	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$19.43	$20	-$0.98	63% 12954-7737 (20691)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.82	$20	+$0	50% 7813-7864 (15677)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.85	$15	-$10.95	55% 5875-4772 (10647)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$29.16	—	-$29.16	35% 16955-31322 (48277)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$10	-$9.9	79% 10621-2765 (13386)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.47	$9.52	-$0.58	43% 2779-3618 (6397)
PI PiEDawg<$100	Noavg 99¢	$6.93	$7	-$1.1	52% 1631-1484 (3115)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 99.4¢	$153.13	—	-$30.19	72% 12202-4798 (17000)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 86¢	$24	—	-$0.06	17% 1026-4959 (5985)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$0.2	—	-$1.58	53% 3176-2843 (6019)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$13.5	—	-$1.32	30% 2189-5039 (7228)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$89.02

Value

$89.84

PnL

-$14.19

Record

55%

25961-21246 (47207)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Invested

$207.49

Value

$85

PnL

-$40.85

Record

51%

528-511 (1039)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$59.75

Value

$60.29

PnL

-$9.53

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$55.48

Value

$55.98

PnL

-$8.85

Record

39%

448-709 (1157)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$48.11

Value

$55

PnL

+$0.07

Record

61%

13866-8714 (22580)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$44.38

Value

$44.6

PnL

-$7.22

Record

44%

3596-4661 (8257)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$39.58

Value

$40

PnL

-$3.42

Record

42%

5989-8172 (14161)

akroll<$100

Invested

$38.64

Value

$38.83

PnL

-$6.29

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$57.57

Value

$36

PnL

-$2.37

Record

31%

1408-3193 (4601)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$31.94

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$5.2

Record

28%

212-555 (767)

klli27<$100

Invested

$31.94

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$5.2

Record

30%

350-813 (1163)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$29.06

Value

$29.32

PnL

-$4.63

Record

28%

231-605 (836)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$27.11

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$4.41

Record

54%

6081-5239 (11320)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.22

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.43

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.98

Record

63%

12954-7737 (20691)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15

PnL

-$10.95

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.16

Value

—

PnL

-$29.16

Record

35%

16955-31322 (48277)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10

PnL

-$9.9

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

merod<$100

Invested

$8.47

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.58

Record

43%

2779-3618 (6397)

PiEDawg<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

PnL

-$1.1

Record

52%

1631-1484 (3115)

e46m3

Invested

$153.13

Value

—

PnL

-$30.19

Record

72%

12202-4798 (17000)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$0.06

Record

17%

1026-4959 (5985)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

3176-2843 (6019)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.32

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

Smart Money Signal

27 of 33 top traders (82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaadcd7c1...597ad8

Slug

will-the-ornn-h200-index-be-less-than-3pt50-on-october-31-2026-20260811191113612

Traders in this Market

balthazar

No — $89.84

-$14.19

GenaTheBondKilIer

No — $85

-$40.85

kaxel78

No — $60.29

-$9.53

zerone777

No — $55.98

-$8.85

northdrawer

No — $55

+$0.07

alex20011

No — $44.6

-$7.22

godblessme2026

No — $40

-$3.42

akroll

No — $38.83

-$6.29

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

No — $36

-$2.37

Vale54holi

No — $32.1

-$5.2

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