Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on October 31, 2026?
Resolved No. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
No 90%
$668.98
-$213.2
Smart Money Signal
23 of 33 top traders (70%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $88.63 | $89.95 | -$13.76 | 55% 25961-21246 (47207) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 83.9¢ | $108.34 | $72.09 | -$50.07 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 83.8¢ | $54.47 | $65 | +$2.85 | 63% 12954-7737 (20691) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $59.67 | $60.29 | -$9.45 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $58.23 | $60 | -$1.27 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $55.4 | $55.98 | -$8.77 | 39% 448-709 (1157) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $44.12 | $44.6 | -$6.98 | 44% 3596-4661 (8257) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $38.44 | $38.83 | -$6.1 | 30% 367-838 (1205) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $31.78 | $32.1 | -$5.04 | 28% 212-555 (767) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.03 | $29.32 | -$4.61 | 28% 231-605 (836) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $27.02 | $27.25 | -$4.32 | 54% 6081-5239 (11320) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $21.52 | $22 | -$3.18 | 31% 1408-3193 (4601) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $18.94 | $20 | +$1.06 | 56% 18370-14706 (33076) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $14.79 | $15 | -$14.79 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $9.82 | $10 | -$9.82 | 79% 10621-2765 (13386) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $10 | -$9.35 | 53% 8926-7971 (16897) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.29 | $9.53 | -$0.35 | 43% 2779-3618 (6397) |
PI PiEDawg<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $6.93 | $7.04 | -$1.06 | 52% 1631-1484 (3115) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $116.16 | — | -$29.36 | 72% 12202-4798 (17000) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$1.54 | 53% 3176-2843 (6019) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $13.5 | — | -$2.13 | 30% 2189-5039 (7228) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$5.07 | 30% 350-813 (1163) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $4.33 | — | -$4.33 | 36% 635-1125 (1760) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $6.74 | — | -$1 | 25% 181-542 (723) |
FO fourcoin15m<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $8 | — | -$1.19 | 49% 4992-5216 (10208) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$88.63
Value
$89.95
PnL
-$13.76
Record
55%
25961-21246 (47207)
Invested
$108.34
Value
$72.09
PnL
-$50.07
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$54.47
Value
$65
PnL
+$2.85
Record
63%
12954-7737 (20691)
Invested
$59.67
Value
$60.29
PnL
-$9.45
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$58.23
Value
$60
PnL
-$1.27
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$55.4
Value
$55.98
PnL
-$8.77
Record
39%
448-709 (1157)
Invested
$44.12
Value
$44.6
PnL
-$6.98
Record
44%
3596-4661 (8257)
Invested
$38.44
Value
$38.83
PnL
-$6.1
Record
30%
367-838 (1205)
Invested
$31.78
Value
$32.1
PnL
-$5.04
Record
28%
212-555 (767)
Invested
$29.03
Value
$29.32
PnL
-$4.61
Record
28%
231-605 (836)
Invested
$27.02
Value
$27.25
PnL
-$4.32
Record
54%
6081-5239 (11320)
Invested
$21.52
Value
$22
PnL
-$3.18
Record
31%
1408-3193 (4601)
Invested
$18.94
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.06
Record
56%
18370-14706 (33076)
Invested
$14.79
Value
$15
PnL
-$14.79
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.82
Value
$10
PnL
-$9.82
Record
79%
10621-2765 (13386)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$10
PnL
-$9.35
Record
53%
8926-7971 (16897)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$9.53
PnL
-$0.35
Record
43%
2779-3618 (6397)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7.04
PnL
-$1.06
Record
52%
1631-1484 (3115)
Invested
$116.16
Value
—
PnL
-$29.36
Record
72%
12202-4798 (17000)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$1.54
Record
53%
3176-2843 (6019)
Invested
$13.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.13
Record
30%
2189-5039 (7228)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$5.07
Record
30%
350-813 (1163)
Invested
$4.33
Value
—
PnL
-$4.33
Record
36%
635-1125 (1760)
Invested
$6.74
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
25%
181-542 (723)
Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.19
Record
49%
4992-5216 (10208)