Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $67 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$67

Combined PnL

$0.47

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$55.53

Total Shares59

Combined PnL-$2.84

Yes2 traders

Total Value$11.36

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$3.31

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$38	$36.39	-$1.61	61% 20778-13190 (33968)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.79	$14.5	-$1.29	32% 4355-9375 (13730)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$7.96	$9.91	+$1.96	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$4.57	$4.64	+$0.07	77% 11143-3403 (14546)
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.1	$1.45	+$1.35	—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$36.39

PnL

-$1.61

Record

61%

20778-13190 (33968)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$1.29

Record

32%

4355-9375 (13730)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.96

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$1.96

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$0.07

Record

77%

11143-3403 (14546)

0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$1.35

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.