Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 18¢ · $585 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$584.5

Combined PnL

$118.91

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$243.11

Total Shares875

Combined PnL+$112.16

No1 trader

Total Value$48.5

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$6.75

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$577.17	$292.89	+$47.9	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.9¢	$202.29	$187.49	-$107.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.3¢	$61.89	$105.4	+$155.39
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$130.96	$243.11	+$112.16	51% 539-527 (1066)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$41.75	$48.5	+$6.75	27% 6132-16260 (22392)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$577.17

Value

$292.89

PnL

+$47.9

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

Both legs:

No$202.2977.9¢-$107.48

Yes$61.8916.3¢+$155.39

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Yes

Invested

$130.96

Value

$243.11

PnL

+$112.16

Record

51%

539-527 (1066)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$41.75

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$6.75

Record

27%

6132-16260 (22392)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.1%

18.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$398.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

498.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.