Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$11.33
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 49.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | +$103.43 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.4¢ | $487.31 | $753.6 | +$294.17 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.4¢ | $529.85 | $335.94 | -$190.74 | |
 GenaTheBondKilIerARB<$100 | Noavg 46.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$279.89 | 51% 519-508 (1027) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.3¢ | $926.79 | $626.51 | -$300.28 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $294.46 | $412.2 | +$20.39 | |
 clazzy1 | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $268.02 | $295.59 | -$11.33 | 62% 391-244 (635) |
Invested
$1,624.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$103.43
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
Both legs:
GenaTheBondKilIerARB<$100Invested
$1,318.6
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$279.89
Record
51%
519-508 (1027)
Both legs:
clazzy1Invested
$268.02
Value
$295.59
PnL
-$11.33
Record
62%
391-244 (635)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.