Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$419.73

Smart Money Entry

27.1¢ → 50.2¢

+85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$879.68

Total Shares1,766

Combined PnL+$400.98

No6 traders

Total Value$437.34

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$18.75

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 27.1¢	$471.16	$872.32	+$401.16	— 0-5 (5)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 71.3¢	$191.33	$175	+$11.12	39% 3706-5907 (9613)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 73¢	$99.28	$102.68	+$3.4	8% 15-162 (177)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$53.85	$56.63	+$2.77	15% 28-157 (185)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$53.48	$56.63	+$3.15	23% 516-1708 (2224)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$40.54	$39.12	-$1.31	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$7.69	$7.3	-$0.39	— 1-6 (7)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$6.1	$4.9	-$1.2	14% 93-568 (661)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.43	$2.46	+$1.02	42% 2644-3715 (6359)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$471.16

Value

$872.32

PnL

+$401.16

Record

—

0-5 (5)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$191.33

Value

$175

PnL

+$11.12

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$99.28

Value

$102.68

PnL

+$3.4

Record

15-162 (177)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$53.85

Value

$56.63

PnL

+$2.77

Record

15%

28-157 (185)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$53.48

Value

$56.63

PnL

+$3.15

Record

23%

516-1708 (2224)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$40.54

Value

$39.12

PnL

-$1.31

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.39

Record

—

1-6 (7)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$1.2

Record

14%

93-568 (661)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$1.02

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.