Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on November 30, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $180 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$180
$3.12
87¢ → 96.9¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $57.28 | $57.17 | -$0.11 | 18% 3793-17172 (20965) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $71.64 | $55.97 | +$4.33 | 36% 15244-27336 (42580) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $23.99 | $22.13 | -$1.87 | 28% 197-497 (694) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $23.99 | $22.13 | -$1.87 | 32% 330-696 (1026) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $16.6 | -$0.4 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $3.43 | $6.46 | +$3.03 | 32% 4389-9438 (13827) |
2B9S<$100Invested
$57.28
Value
$57.17
PnL
-$0.11
Record
18%
3793-17172 (20965)
Invested
$71.64
Value
$55.97
PnL
+$4.33
Record
36%
15244-27336 (42580)
Invested
$23.99
Value
$22.13
PnL
-$1.87
Record
28%
197-497 (694)
Invested
$23.99
Value
$22.13
PnL
-$1.87
Record
32%
330-696 (1026)
balthazar<$100Invested
$17
Value
$16.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$6.46
PnL
+$3.03
Record
32%
4389-9438 (13827)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.