Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.50 on October 31, 2026?
Resolved No. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
No 88%
$586
-$163.63
Smart Money Signal
18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $110.06 | $110.29 | -$18.2 | 43% 2040-2652 (4692) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $87.41 | $83 | -$8.4 | 53% 3176-2843 (6019) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $79.23 | $79.41 | -$13.06 | 44% 3596-4661 (8257) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $55.55 | $55.6 | +$0.06 | 79% 10621-2765 (13386) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $50.83 | $50.95 | -$32.07 | 56% 18370-14706 (33076) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $35.36 | $35.41 | -$5.86 | 30% 350-813 (1163) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $33.48 | $34 | -$8.8 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.37 | $29.41 | -$4.86 | 39% 448-709 (1157) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.38 | $29.41 | -$4.87 | 28% 231-605 (836) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $28.3 | $28.36 | -$4.67 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $20 | -$1.64 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $9.77 | $10 | -$2.71 | 61% 13866-8714 (22580) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $10 | +$0 | 63% 12954-7737 (20691) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | -$1.64 | 42% 5989-8172 (14161) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $0.16 | $0.16 | +$0 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
E4 e46m3 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $132.88 | — | -$48.02 | 72% 12202-4798 (17000) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $4.22 | — | -$4.22 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | -$1.66 | 53% 8926-7971 (16897) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | -$1.65 | 49% 7454-7779 (15233) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.37 | — | -$1.37 | 28% 5957-15587 (21544) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 4-2 (6) |
Invested
$110.06
Value
$110.29
PnL
-$18.2
Record
43%
2040-2652 (4692)
Invested
$87.41
Value
$83
PnL
-$8.4
Record
53%
3176-2843 (6019)
Invested
$79.23
Value
$79.41
PnL
-$13.06
Record
44%
3596-4661 (8257)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$55.55
Value
$55.6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
79%
10621-2765 (13386)
Invested
$50.83
Value
$50.95
PnL
-$32.07
Record
56%
18370-14706 (33076)
Invested
$35.36
Value
$35.41
PnL
-$5.86
Record
30%
350-813 (1163)
Invested
$33.48
Value
$34
PnL
-$8.8
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$29.41
PnL
-$4.86
Record
39%
448-709 (1157)
Invested
$29.38
Value
$29.41
PnL
-$4.87
Record
28%
231-605 (836)
Invested
$28.3
Value
$28.36
PnL
-$4.67
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.64
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$10
PnL
-$2.71
Record
61%
13866-8714 (22580)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
12954-7737 (20691)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.64
Record
42%
5989-8172 (14161)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
Invested
$132.88
Value
—
PnL
-$48.02
Record
72%
12202-4798 (17000)
Invested
$4.22
Value
—
PnL
-$4.22
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$1.66
Record
53%
8926-7971 (16897)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
49%
7454-7779 (15233)
Invested
$1.37
Value
—
PnL
-$1.37
Record
28%
5957-15587 (21544)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
4-2 (6)