Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $8.50 and $9.00 on November 30, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $169 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$169.36
$10.79
85.3¢ → 92.6¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 83.9¢ | $103.69 | $113.64 | +$9.95 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $26.55 | $27.86 | +$1.3 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $16.1 | $17.15 | +$1.05 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $8.85 | $9.29 | +$0.44 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $3.38 | $1.43 | -$1.95 | 50% 78-77 (155) |
Invested
$103.69
Value
$113.64
PnL
+$9.95
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$26.55
Value
$27.86
PnL
+$1.3
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.1
Value
$17.15
PnL
+$1.05
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.85
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.44
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$1.95
Record
50%
78-77 (155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.