Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?
Resolved No. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
No 94%
$747.79
-$119.72
Smart Money Signal
20 of 22 top traders (91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 89.5¢ | $114.62 | $128.03 | +$13.41 | 56% 18370-14706 (33076) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $109.62 | $112.43 | -$15.98 | 43% 2040-2652 (4692) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $78.01 | $79.41 | -$11.89 | 44% 3596-4661 (8257) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $62.2 | $63 | +$0 | 63% 12954-7737 (20691) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $47.82 | $50 | -$1.58 | 50% 7813-7864 (15677) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $43.75 | $44.07 | +$0.32 | 79% 10621-2765 (13386) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $43.49 | $43.74 | -$7.01 | 55% 25961-21246 (47207) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $35.18 | $35.41 | -$5.68 | 30% 350-813 (1163) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $34.65 | $35 | -$0.68 | 61% 13866-8714 (22580) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.75 | $30 | -$8.47 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.23 | $29.41 | -$4.73 | 39% 448-709 (1157) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.23 | $29.41 | -$4.73 | 28% 231-605 (836) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $40.41 | $29.36 | -$11.05 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $28.19 | $28.36 | -$4.56 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $9.91 | $10 | -$1.61 | 53% 8926-7971 (16897) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $0.16 | $0.16 | +$0 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
E4 e46m3 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $148.25 | — | -$37.43 | 72% 12202-4798 (17000) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $4.54 | — | -$7.32 | 53% 3176-2843 (6019) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | — | — | -$1.57 | 42% 5989-8172 (14161) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | — | — | -$1.57 | 49% 7454-7779 (15233) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $7.59 | — | -$7.59 | 28% 5957-15587 (21544) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccd<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 4-2 (6) |
Invested
$114.62
Value
$128.03
PnL
+$13.41
Record
56%
18370-14706 (33076)
Invested
$109.62
Value
$112.43
PnL
-$15.98
Record
43%
2040-2652 (4692)
Invested
$78.01
Value
$79.41
PnL
-$11.89
Record
44%
3596-4661 (8257)
Invested
$62.2
Value
$63
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
12954-7737 (20691)
Invested
$47.82
Value
$50
PnL
-$1.58
Record
50%
7813-7864 (15677)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.75
Value
$44.07
PnL
+$0.32
Record
79%
10621-2765 (13386)
balthazar<$100Invested
$43.49
Value
$43.74
PnL
-$7.01
Record
55%
25961-21246 (47207)
Invested
$35.18
Value
$35.41
PnL
-$5.68
Record
30%
350-813 (1163)
Invested
$34.65
Value
$35
PnL
-$0.68
Record
61%
13866-8714 (22580)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$30
PnL
-$8.47
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$29.23
Value
$29.41
PnL
-$4.73
Record
39%
448-709 (1157)
Invested
$29.23
Value
$29.41
PnL
-$4.73
Record
28%
231-605 (836)
Invested
$40.41
Value
$29.36
PnL
-$11.05
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$28.19
Value
$28.36
PnL
-$4.56
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.61
Record
53%
8926-7971 (16897)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
Invested
$148.25
Value
—
PnL
-$37.43
Record
72%
12202-4798 (17000)
Invested
$4.54
Value
—
PnL
-$7.32
Record
53%
3176-2843 (6019)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$1.57
Record
42%
5989-8172 (14161)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$1.57
Record
49%
7454-7779 (15233)
Invested
$7.59
Value
—
PnL
-$7.59
Record
28%
5957-15587 (21544)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
4-2 (6)