Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $475 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$475
-$26.65
97.4¢ → 98.3¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 94.1¢ | $160.57 | $156.57 | -$4 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $106.77 | $98.34 | -$8.43 | 31% 297-658 (955) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.7 | $68.85 | -$5.85 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.42 | $54.71 | -$4.7 | 28% 169-429 (598) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $45.9 | -$3.9 | 40% 391-591 (982) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $37.35 | $34.43 | -$2.92 | 31% 314-685 (999) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $7.9 | $9.71 | +$1.81 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $5.61 | $6.96 | +$1.35 | — |
balthazarInvested
$160.57
Value
$156.57
PnL
-$4
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$106.77
Value
$98.34
PnL
-$8.43
Record
31%
297-658 (955)
Invested
$74.7
Value
$68.85
PnL
-$5.85
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
Invested
$59.42
Value
$54.71
PnL
-$4.7
Record
28%
169-429 (598)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$45.9
PnL
-$3.9
Record
40%
391-591 (982)
Invested
$37.35
Value
$34.43
PnL
-$2.92
Record
31%
314-685 (999)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$9.71
PnL
+$1.81
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$6.96
PnL
+$1.35
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.