Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $460 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$460
-$5.39
98.8¢ → 97.6¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 97¢ | $126.68 | $123.87 | -$2.81 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $106.69 | $101.6 | -$5.09 | 31% 297-658 (955) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.68 | $71.14 | -$3.54 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $59.3 | $56.53 | -$2.77 | 28% 169-429 (598) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $47.43 | -$2.38 | 40% 391-591 (982) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $37.35 | $35.57 | -$1.78 | 31% 314-685 (999) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $9.7 | $13.43 | +$3.73 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.78 | $10.02 | +$9.24 | — |
balthazarInvested
$126.68
Value
$123.87
PnL
-$2.81
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$106.69
Value
$101.6
PnL
-$5.09
Record
31%
297-658 (955)
Invested
$74.68
Value
$71.14
PnL
-$3.54
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
Invested
$59.3
Value
$56.53
PnL
-$2.77
Record
28%
169-429 (598)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$47.43
PnL
-$2.38
Record
40%
391-591 (982)
Invested
$37.35
Value
$35.57
PnL
-$1.78
Record
31%
314-685 (999)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$13.43
PnL
+$3.73
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$9.24
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.