Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $485 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$485
-$11.29
98.8¢ → 97.7¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 97.6¢ | $166.56 | $160.36 | -$6.2 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $106.45 | $100.69 | -$5.76 | 31% 297-658 (955) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $74.5 | $70.5 | -$4 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $59.18 | $56.02 | -$3.16 | 28% 169-429 (598) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $49.65 | $47 | -$2.65 | 40% 391-591 (982) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $37.24 | $35.25 | -$1.99 | 31% 314-685 (999) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.24 | $11.06 | +$8.82 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.41 | $4.05 | +$3.64 | — |
balthazarInvested
$166.56
Value
$160.36
PnL
-$6.2
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$106.45
Value
$100.69
PnL
-$5.76
Record
31%
297-658 (955)
Invested
$74.5
Value
$70.5
PnL
-$4
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
Invested
$59.18
Value
$56.02
PnL
-$3.16
Record
28%
169-429 (598)
Invested
$49.65
Value
$47
PnL
-$2.65
Record
40%
391-591 (982)
Invested
$37.24
Value
$35.25
PnL
-$1.99
Record
31%
314-685 (999)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$8.82
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$3.64
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.